Iran (IMNA) - The strait was shut following the outbreak of the West Asia conflict on February 28, 2026, turning what began as a regional security crisis into a potential global food emergency. Under normal circumstances, 20 to 30 percent of all internationally traded fertilizer passes through the waterway, but that flow has now come to a near-complete halt.
Speaking before the FAO Council on April 28, Director-General QU Dongyu described the disruption as “the beginning of a systemic agrifood shock.” He explained that a delay of just two to three weeks in fertilizer shipments forces farmers to cut back on application rates, which directly lowers crop yields per hectare. The FAO estimates the disruption has already held back between 1.5 and 3 million tons of fertilizer each month, affecting at least 40 million hectares of rice and threatening yield declines of 10 to 20 percent.
The effects are already visible in global markets. Within one week of the conflict starting, granular urea prices in West Asia jumped nearly 20 percent. By mid-April, urea prices had soared 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil. The FAO Food Price Index averaged 130.7 points in April, up 1.6 percent from March, while the All Rice Price Index rose 1.9 percent. The Cereal Price Index also increased by 1.1 percent in March, partly due to higher wheat prices.
In a podcast on May 20, 2026, FAO Chief Economist Máximo Torero cautioned that without swift government action, the world will likely face a severe global food price crisis within six to twelve months. He added that rising energy costs will propagate through seeds, yields, and eventually retail prices. With prices already trending upward, the opportunity to take preventive measures is quickly disappearing.
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