Iran (IMNA) - A U.S. affairs specialist stated that any American attempt to seize the island—located approximately 25 kilometers off Iran’s coast—would amount to a high‑stakes gamble. He claimed that Iranian forces are positioned to destroy any deployed U.S. units on the island within two hours.
Rafael Ordokhanian argued that Kharg Island is an integral part of Iran’s territory and that its critical targets have already been mapped and prepared for rapid strikes. Even with a U.S. withdrawal attempt, he said, Iranian forces could move onto the island, deploy combat units, and ultimately assume control over the Strait of Hormuz.
Ordokhanian added that the destruction of U.S. positions would rely on concentrated attacks on pre‑identified objectives and emphasized that U.S. air defense capabilities in such a scenario would be insufficient to establish an effective protective shield for ground forces.
Reports from Axios on March 20 indicated that Washington has been weighing two primary options: implementing a naval blockade or launching a military operation to capture Kharg Island. The Jerusalem Post similarly reported that senior U.S. officials have conveyed to Israeli counterparts and allies that a ground operation aimed at controlling the island could be the last remaining path to increase pressure on Iran.
Military analyst Igor Korotchenko also commented on the scenario, stating that while a U.S. assault on the island is theoretically possible, it would likely result in heavy American casualties. Given the island’s close proximity to Iran’s mainland, he noted that Iranian forces and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps could target U.S. positions using ballistic missiles, drones, artillery, and multiple launch rocket systems.
Korotchenko added that covert approaches to the island—whether by amphibious vessels, helicopters, or tilt‑rotor aircraft—would be highly challenging. In such conditions, he argued, Iranian forces could deploy a wide array of weapons, from man‑portable air‑defense systems to unmanned explosive boats.
When asked whether U.S. forces could become trapped on the island, he said the scenario was plausible, though he acknowledged that any assault might be combined with a broader U.S. military operation against Iran. He described the situation as fluid, suggesting that the scenario could either represent a genuine Pentagon plan or a strategic maneuver intended to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
Korotchenko also warned that a wider conflict could lead to Iranian strikes on critical infrastructure across the Persian Gulf region, including oil and gas facilities and export terminals. He pointed to what he described as strategic miscalculations by U.S. leadership, noting that Washington is viewed as being in a constrained position.
Economic analysts have likewise raised concerns, estimating that disruption to Kharg Island could remove between 1.5 and 1.7 million barrels of oil per day from global markets, potentially driving prices to between 120and120 and 120and160 per barrel.
Former U.S. intelligence officials have also cautioned that a ground operation to seize the island would likely end in disaster, with American forces facing rapid destruction shortly after deployment.
These assessments extend beyond the United States. British military analysts have echoed the warnings, arguing that a large‑scale ground assault on Iran could result in catastrophic failure. Some drew parallels with the Gallipoli Campaign of World War I, underscoring the widespread agreement on the significant risks involved in any major military action in this strategically sensitive region.
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